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| <span style="color:#ff0000">''Introductory sentence''</span> | | <span style="color:#ff0000">''Introductory sentence''</span> |
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− | == '''Hazards and hazardous events''' == | + | == Hazards and hazardous events == |
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| While a '''hazard''' is essentially a threat, a '''hazardous event or condition''' is harmful and leads to the current state changing for the worse. Hazards generally result from human-induced changes or from altered natural conditions. | | While a '''hazard''' is essentially a threat, a '''hazardous event or condition''' is harmful and leads to the current state changing for the worse. Hazards generally result from human-induced changes or from altered natural conditions. |
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| A risk is a function of damage and likelihood of a harmful hazardous event or hazardous condition. | | A risk is a function of damage and likelihood of a harmful hazardous event or hazardous condition. |
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| A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses (IPCC 2012). | | A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses (IPCC 2012). |
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| + | The risk impact or risk consequence is the entire range of damages caused by a hazardous event or hazardous condition. Partial risk impacts are only those targeted at a particular stakeholder (group) or asset. |
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| + | TEXT TEXT TEXT <u>Risk impact chain</u> |
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| + | == Risk response measures<br/> == |
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Revision as of 14:11, 9 April 2014
Introduction
The objective of a concept for the development of a Watershed Risk and Sustainability Assessment (WRSA) is the development of an approach and methodology regarding (economic) costs and benefits of shared risk management on the watershed or city level. A systematic assessment of shared risks is needed to complement cooperative processes that aim for the mitigation of shared risk. Such an assessment will help to identify causes of risks and most cost efficient and effective mitigation option that aid a transition process towards sustainable management of resources. Given the challenges in watershed management and collective action, a systematic approach shall a) identify risk and causal relations, b) trigger cooperative action and c) identify cost efficient and effective mitigation measures.
A WRSA is addressed at and jointly developed by all watershed stakeholders. In order to generate meaningful and implementable solutions its standardised four phases methodology and set of tools quantifies water risks and provides a cost-benefit analysis of different mitigation options. The key objective and challenge at the same time is the establishment of cooperation between partners that have neither common procedures nor the tradition of a joint management of water. Risk assessments follow standard procedures, but need to be adapted to the particular circumstances of watershed risks. The concept of sustainability will bring in a broader notion and opportunity to harmonize multiple objectives, particularly regarding the assessment of measures and projects.
Objectives
Introductory sentence
Overall objective for WRSA methodology
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Reduce key water-related risks for civil society, public and private actors in watersheds worldwide.
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Specific objective for WRSA methodology
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Develop a methodology and toolkit which catalyse effective collaborative action on and long-term transformation of institutional structures for addressing and monitoring shared water risks in a watershed among corporate, government and civil society stakeholders, in particular providing economic indicators for demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of action compared to inaction.
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Why use a WRSA approach?
Sectoral and segmented risk assessments which do not take into account shared water risks can create major inefficiencies and inequalities in the allocation of damages, risk mitigation costs and benefits of increased security.
Risks need to be seen as a social as well as physical issue. This necessitates cooperation between partners that have neither common procedures nor the tradition of a joint management of water. The WRSA is an approach and methodology regarding (economic) costs and benefits of shared risk management on the watershed or city level. The requirements of the WRSA approach are: review and assess existing methodologies, model the probability and severity of future water risks, and map how these risks might impact different water users and ecosystems and the subsequent economic impacts. Furthermore it should determine the causes and drivers of water risks, assess the impacts of risk mitigation interventions and help to estimate actual return on investment and providing evidence for improvement. It should finally present results and recommendations in a widely understandable, communicable and illustrative way.
Collective Action
Feedback loops between the natural and socio-economic systems are a major cause of the system’s complexity. Reductions of the water supply occur, and its availability is further limited by reduced water reliability and quality; simultaneously demand for it increases due to population growth. Additional drivers, such as climate change, contribute to a growing uncertainty. This leads to the increase of water risks for different stakeholder groups in watersheds and basins around the world. Various risks for different users exist; some are shared, others are individual. An inefficient management of water resources increases the risks for all users. The equal and fair utilization of water by different stakeholder groups has to be ensured. Most risks are tackled most cost-efficiently and effectively if they are dealt with collectively. The WRSA approach supports collective water risk management.
There is a global trend towards private sector actors becoming more involved in and taking on more responsibility in managing water risks. The public sector’s resources and capacities are often inadequate to ensure equitable solutions. A collective, public-private engagement is often stronger, more sustainable and financially more capable.
Phases of WRSA
Introductory sentence
Phase 1: Engaging stakeholders
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT
Phase 2: Assessing
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Phase 3: Planning
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT
Phase 4: Implementing
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Concepts of risk
Introductory sentence
Hazards and hazardous events
While a hazard is essentially a threat, a hazardous event or condition is harmful and leads to the current state changing for the worse. Hazards generally result from human-induced changes or from altered natural conditions.
Risk
A risk is a function of damage and likelihood of a harmful hazardous event or hazardous condition.
For the WRSA the risks are categorized in two different ways: 1) a risk is related to the origin of the risk, that is the hazardous events / conditions (e.g., regulatory risk). Or 2) it relates to the impact of the hazardous event (e.g. health risk, water quality risk, livelihood risks). The difficulty with such a categorisation is that there may be an overlap between different “risk terms”. Therefore, this WRSA focuses on hazardous events or conditions as well as their impacts rather than a “… risk”.
It is important to note that risk is shaped to a great extent by individual and social perceptions (UNESCO 2009). Damages may be experienced differently by different groups or even individuals. Also, the risk tolerance differs between groups and individuals, some are more and some are less risk-averse. The risk of a certain event or condition can never be defined in absolute terms. This is an essential aspect that has to be kept in mind while developing the WRSA methodology.
TEXT TEXT TEXT Water risk
Likelihood
A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses (IPCC 2012).
Risk impact
The risk impact or risk consequence is the entire range of damages caused by a hazardous event or hazardous condition. Partial risk impacts are only those targeted at a particular stakeholder (group) or asset.
TEXT TEXT TEXT Risk impact chain
Risk response measures
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT
Vulnerability
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT
Uncertainty
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT